Europe and North America gas prices v grid emissions intensity 2005-2025

North America’s shale gas revolution has had a transformational effect on natural gas prices which have fallen by nearly two thirds, in nominal terms, over the past two decades.

What is less remarked upon is the effect this has had on emissions reduction:

⚠️ The emissions intensity of the US power has fallen by almost 200g CO₂/kWh over the same period.
⚠️ Coal-to-gas switching has directly accounted for between a third to a half of the declining footprint, while the expansion of flexible gas-fired capacity has also enabled the build-out of variable renewables.

While the European nations have followed a divergent path in terms of their energy policy priorities and outcomes, the greater explicit policy emphasis on emissions reduction has not led to substantially deeper cuts in power grid emissions intensity, but natural gas prices have more than doubled in nominal terms.

However, there is no room for complacency around the ability of Gas to drive coal out of the energy mix. As the Energy Institute's recent Statistical Review of Energy 2026 showed, US emissions from energy rose 3.1% in 2025 to 4.76 bn tonnes, reflecting a step change from the ten-year trend of minus 0.8%. This was a function of higher coal use, and came despite a 7.2% reduction in natural gas flaring.

These trends highlight the crucial role that taking the right policy steps to prioritise an abundant supply of Gas can play not only in achieving industrial competitiveness but, also, in the path to a lower emissions energy system.

For more insights on price development over the last 20 years, read our 2026 Wholesale IGU Wholesale Gas Price Survey and the IGU’s article in The National Interest.